Kioni & Jubilee’s Secret Plan for Matiang’i to Oust Ruto in 2027.
In politics, nothing happens by coincidence. Every move is meticulously planned and executed with a specific goal in mind. This is especially evident in the ongoing discussions about Fred Matiang’i and his potential candidacy for Jubilee in 2027.
Despite public insistence from figures like Jeremiah Kioni that Matiang’i is the chosen candidate, the reality on the ground paints a different picture.
Several close allies of Matiang’i have shared that he already has a political party in place, with a governor in Nyeri and multiple Members of Parliament (MPs) from the Gusii region, as well as several MCAs. These individuals are reportedly flocking to Matiang’i’s party, signaling a significant shift away from the ODM party. This move could severely impact the fortunes of the ODM party, especially in the Gusii region.
Yet, Kioni’s insistence on Matiang’i as Jubilee’s candidate raises questions. Why is Jubilee so eager to support him, even when it seems there’s a growing political base around him that could threaten ODM’s dominance?
There are several reasons behind Kioni’s push for Matiang’i. Firstly, Jubilee is attempting to consolidate its influence in the Mt. Kenya region. The rise of figures like Ruto has shifted the political landscape, and Jubilee is looking to counter Ruto’s growing support base. By promoting Matiang’i as a potential presidential candidate, they aim to strengthen their foothold in the region.
Secondly, Jubilee faces a credibility crisis. As of now, the party has no strong candidate for 2027. In such a situation, promoting someone like Matiang’i, who is seen as a key ally of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, could provide a viable solution. With his existing political network and connections, Matiang’i offers a chance for Jubilee to negotiate a place at the table in any coalition discussions.
The offer for Matiang’i to run as Jubilee’s candidate is undoubtedly appealing, but there are significant factors to consider before accepting. The financial backing from Uhuru Kenyatta, who remains one of Kenya’s wealthiest figures, could provide crucial support for a presidential campaign.
Furthermore, the network of influential figures from the Kenyatta era could be mobilized to back Matiang’i’s bid. These are tempting factors, especially considering that the 2027 elections are projected to be the most expensive in Kenya’s history.
Additionally, the numbers game cannot be ignored. In the 2022 elections, despite limited support in the Mt. Kenya region, Raila Odinga managed to secure over a million votes from the area. By aligning with Matiang’i, who could potentially secure a larger portion of the Gusii and Mt. Kenya votes, the path to victory may seem clearer.
However, the offer is not without its pitfalls.
The Dangers of Being Seen as a “Project”
Despite the attractive offer, Matiang’i should be cautious. There’s a significant risk that he could be perceived as just another project of Uhuru Kenyatta. This perception could hurt his political standing, especially since Kenyans have shown a tendency to reject candidates seen as “projects” of other leaders.
Raila Odinga faced this exact challenge in the 2022 elections, as he was branded as Uhuru’s chosen candidate, which led to his defeat.
If Matiang’i accepts Jubilee’s offer, he may find himself in the same position, losing valuable ground among voters who seek an independent, strong candidate, rather than someone seen as a puppet of the past.
Moreover, Matiang’i’s best path forward may not involve joining Jubilee at all. Mt. Kenya’s current political landscape is dominated by leaders like William Ruto and the strong influence of figures like Moses Kuria.
If Matiang’i wishes to align himself with Mt. Kenya’s future, he must carefully consider whether joining forces with Jubilee is the right move, or if he should rather seek alignment with figures like Ruto or others within the region who are not tied to the failed political structures of the past.
Jubilee has shown a lack of organizational cohesion, especially during Uhuru Kenyatta’s tenure as president. The failure to manage the party effectively led to significant defections, with figures like Moses Kuria distancing themselves from Kenyatta. If Matiang’i joins a party plagued by such dysfunction, he risks being associated with its failures, which could tarnish his reputation.
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Strategic Alliances and the ODM Base
For Matiang’i to succeed in 2027, he may need to leverage the support base of ODM, especially in key regions like Western Kenya. However, this is something he cannot achieve under the Jubilee banner.
ODM voters are unlikely to support a candidate who aligns with a party that carries the stigma of past failures. To win over these voters, Matiang’i would need to distance himself from Jubilee and build his own political platform, one that appeals to a broader cross-section of Kenyans, including those dissatisfied with Ruto’s administration.
Ultimately, while the offer from Jubilee seems lucrative on the surface, the strategic risks outweigh the rewards. The political landscape is shifting, and Matiang’i’s best bet may lie in forging his own path, either with a new political party or by aligning with like-minded leaders who can help him challenge Ruto’s grip on power.
The key question remains: should he join Jubilee or carve his own political future? For now, the most sensible option would be to remain independent and avoid becoming a pawn in a larger political game that may not benefit him in the long run.
Kioni & Jubilee’s Secret Plan for Matiang’i to Oust Ruto in 2027.
