Key ODM Leaders Boycott Ruto’s Nairobi Tour in Defiance.
President William Ruto’s recent visit to Nairobi holds major political significance for two reasons. First, it comes just days after Ruto formalized an agreement between the UDA party and ODM. Second, the visit follows an event where Raila Odinga faced heckling after the signing of this pact. However, what stood out during this tour was the conspicuous absence of key ODM allies. Notably, Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, and Tim Wanyonyi were missing, which raises serious political questions.
Babu Owino’s absence was particularly striking, given that he is typically responsible for mobilizing crowds for ODM events in Nairobi. Additionally, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who signed the agreement on behalf of the party and demonstrated a telling body language during the signing, was also missing. Another notable absentee was Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi, who had previously been a frontrunner for Nairobi’s gubernatorial seat but lost out due to the ODM-Jubilee agreement. The absence of these three figures is a critical issue worth analyzing, as in politics, nothing happens by coincidence.
Ruto’s decision to visit Nairobi so soon after the pact was strategic. His primary goal was to build momentum for his 2027 presidential campaign, using the handshake as a tool to solidify his base in the capital. The event at KICC saw large crowds gathered, appearing jubilant, a display Ruto wanted to sustain. However, the challenge remains whether he can maintain this momentum, as his messaging continues to focus on future promises rather than present achievements.
Another key reason for the event was to counter the perception that he is losing support. Politics is largely about perception, and the turnout was carefully orchestrated to show that Nairobi remains with him. The presence of many individuals carrying Kenyan flags raises questions about who funded and organized the event. Furthermore, Ruto aimed to reassert his authority in Nairobi, signaling that despite losing some Kikuyu support, he still holds influence over the city’s politics.
Why ODM Leaders Boycotted the Event
The absence of Sifuna, Babu Owino, and Wanyonyi was not a coincidence but a strategic decision influenced by various political dynamics.
1. Nairobi’s Political Landscape
One major reason these leaders avoided the event is that they saw no political value in aligning with Ruto. For example, Babu Owino has gubernatorial ambitions, but Ruto is working closely with Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, who is also eyeing reelection. Attending the event would have been seen as an endorsement of Sakaja, a direct competitor.
Similarly, Sifuna, as Nairobi’s senator, would find himself in a difficult position since Sakaja, a fellow lawyer, occupies the governor’s seat. A single party backing both positions with candidates from the same ethnic background would create a political imbalance. This explains why Sifuna has distanced himself from the handshake. Politics in Nairobi is about self-interest, and attending the event would not have served theirs.
2. Ruto’s Limited Influence in Nairobi
Another critical factor is Ruto’s relatively weak political influence in Nairobi. Unlike other regions where he commands a strong following, Nairobi’s electorate is not easily swayed by his leadership. The individuals who hold sway in the city, to some extent, are Raila Odinga and, to a lesser degree, Kalonzo Musyoka. ODM leaders, recognizing this, saw no benefit in participating in an event that did not serve their interests.
3. Ground Politics and Public Perception
After Raila faced heckling in Kisii following the handshake, it became clear that the grassroots had not yet accepted this political agreement. Given the volatility of the situation, rushing to endorse Ruto’s Nairobi tour could have led to a similar backlash, which would have harmed their image. Additionally, Sakaja’s role in mobilizing attendees may have influenced the event’s atmosphere, making it politically risky for ODM leaders to attend.
4. Internal ODM Disagreements
The ODM party is now split into two factions: one that fully embraces the handshake and another that remains skeptical. Raila and Sakaja have accepted the deal, while Babu Owino, Sifuna, Tim Wanyonyi, and other key figures like James Orengo have not. Many ODM supporters also remain unconvinced, making it impossible for these leaders to endorse the agreement publicly. If Sifuna or Babu had joined Ruto at the event, it would have made major headlines, forcing them into an uncomfortable position.
Notably, if a figure like Kalonzo Musyoka had presided over the event, Sifuna might have attended, given the historical political alignment between ODM and Wiper. However, under the current circumstances, the handshake remains contentious.
The Influence of 2027 Politics
The political landscape of Nairobi ahead of the 2027 elections is also shaping these decisions. The key question is which political formation will dominate the city. Babu Owino, for instance, represents Embakasi East, where a significant number of Kamba, Luo, and Luhya voters reside. If he wants to be Nairobi’s governor, he must appeal to these communities while also gaining Kikuyu and Asian support. However, this is complicated by the fact that leaked plans suggest Kikuyus will be strategically placed to win key seats, which could hurt Babu’s chances.
Winning Nairobi is different from winning a rural constituency, where the ground may be more accepting of a handshake. In Nairobi, the situation is unpredictable, and aligning too soon with an unpopular deal could backfire. This explains why MPs from other areas might accept the agreement, but leaders in Nairobi are more cautious.
Read Also: Why Maraga’s 2027 Presidential Ambition Could Crush Matiang’i
Conclusion
The boycott of Ruto’s Nairobi tour by key ODM leaders signals deeper political tensions. Their absence was driven by personal ambitions, the lack of political benefits, the uncertainty of public support for the handshake, and the broader 2027 strategy. Nairobi remains a critical battleground, and for these leaders, premature endorsements could prove politically costly.
As the political landscape evolves, it remains to be seen whether these divisions will persist or if new alliances will form. What is clear, however, is that the road to 2027 will be highly competitive, especially in Nairobi.
Key ODM Leaders Boycott Ruto’s Nairobi Tour in Defiance
