Kenya’s Political Storm: What Happens If Raila Odinga Loses? Can Ruto Survive?
The upcoming African Union (AU) chairperson election on Saturday holds significant weight for Kenya, as former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is a candidate. However, the election’s outcome will have far-reaching effects back home.
The latest updates from Addis Ababa indicate that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has decided to rally behind the Madagascar candidate, Richard Randriamandrato. This move complicates Odinga’s chances, as his campaign team initially claimed he had secured 28 endorsements, many of which were from SADC countries.
Last year, Arab states backed Djibouti’s candidate, leaving Kenya in a precarious position reminiscent of the 2017 elections. Some SADC nations publicly endorsed Odinga and even urged their candidates to withdraw in his favor.
Regardless of the result, Kenya must reflect on past missteps, especially as this contest reaches its climax, with heads of state arriving in Addis Ababa for the final stretch of voting. The Kenyan delegation and Odinga’s campaign team must now navigate these unexpected developments carefully.
Regional Politics and Voting Interests
Despite SADC’s support for its candidate, voting remains an independent process where countries prioritize their interests. If Kenya serves a nation’s best interests as AU chair, they will vote accordingly, just as SADC countries might favor Madagascar. Interestingly, Tanzania’s role has drawn attention, as it previously abstained from supporting Kenya’s candidate, Ambassador Amina Mohamed, in 2017.
Although voting is secret, Tanzania and Uganda’s stance in such matters speaks volumes. Observers familiar with East African Community (EAC) politics highlight the complex and often strained relationship between Kenya and Tanzania. While Tanzania belongs to both the EAC and SADC, its voting behavior often aligns with SADC interests. Kenya has occasionally dominated Tanzania in regional affairs, leading to retaliatory actions when voting opportunities arise.
SADC, with its 16 member states, holds significant influence compared to the EAC, which has recently expanded to include Somalia, bringing its membership to eight.
A second round of voting could provide Odinga with a chance to sway SADC votes, though he also faces challenges from the Francophone bloc, which historically votes collectively to support its candidate. The revised voting procedure, where commissioners are elected before the chairperson, further complicates matters, as loyalty among voters is already determined in advance.
The Prospects of a Raila Odinga Victory
A win for Odinga would be a substantial gain for the continent. Those who followed the debates recognized his deep understanding of African affairs, not because of his past presidential bids in Kenya but due to his experience and Pan-African commitment.
His policies reflect a vision for Africa that his opponents lack, particularly in infrastructure development and continental integration. His plans, if implemented, could significantly aid the African Continental Free Trade Agreement.
Without Odinga at the helm, the continent might struggle to advance some of these initiatives. His competitors do not appear to advocate strongly for Pan-Africanism, as they are often aligned with external interests.
If he loses and returns home, however, Kenyan politics will undoubtedly shift dramatically. Odinga has a history of making impactful political comebacks, and this time would be no different.
Odinga’s return would inject fresh energy into Kenyan politics. His influence remains intact, as seen in his recent endorsement of Nairobi’s governor. Despite speculation that he may step back, he still commands his party and the national political scene.
If he loses the AU seat, he will likely reposition himself strategically within the opposition. Kenyans should prepare for his return as a formidable political force, stirring up activity ahead of the 2027 elections.
ODM, his party, is already experiencing internal divisions. Some factions support the government, while others advocate for an independent candidate in the next election.
Many within the party appear to be waiting for the AU election’s outcome before making their next moves. The implications of this election stretch beyond Kenya’s internal affairs, affecting the broader African continent.
If Odinga wins, his focus will shift to implementing AU policies and programs, making local political engagement difficult. His ambitious eight-pillar agenda would require full dedication, aligning with Africa’s Agenda 2063 goals.
However, the local political landscape continues to evolve, with critical developments such as the National Assembly Speaker facing impeachment following a court ruling on majority-minority representation.
The interaction between ODM and the government remains delicate. While some ODM members hold key government positions in finance, energy, and other strategic sectors, there is uncertainty about how Kenya Kwanza will handle these internal dynamics.
If Odinga fails to secure the AU seat, tensions within ODM may intensify, potentially leading to significant political realignments.
Kenya Kwanza’s Dilemma
Kenya Kwanza faces a strategic challenge. Speaker Moses Wetangula’s possible removal could pave the way for an ODM-affiliated leader to take his place. Such a move would force President William Ruto to reevaluate his political alliances, particularly as he courts Odinga’s support base ahead of the 2027 elections.
Locally, there is lingering sentiment that former President Uhuru Kenyatta betrayed Odinga by endorsing him yet failing to secure his victory. Ruto must navigate this delicate political landscape carefully.
If Odinga loses the AU race, the betrayal narrative will persist, potentially alienating a crucial voter bloc.
Additionally, another key player, the impeached Deputy President, remains vocal about his own political ambitions. He has publicly stated that Ruto intends to inherit Odinga’s support base, but doing so will not be straightforward. The shifting political terrain suggests that both Ruto and his deputy will need to tread carefully as they maneuver for 2027.
Ultimately, the AU election is not just about continental leadership—it has far-reaching consequences for Kenyan politics. Whether Odinga wins or loses, the political landscape is poised for significant turbulence.
Growing Distrust in Government
By the end of the day, Kenyans have lost trust not only in the government but also in Raila Odinga himself. Many feel betrayed and do not fully trust the impeached Deputy President. They are only aligning with him now because he speaks their language.
A notable remark once made during the constitutional assembly indicated that a time would come after the election when every political move would be met with resistance. The prophecy might have been correct, but the timing was wrong.
At this moment, every political effort by Ruto appears to be failing. Any attempt to consolidate support seems to crumble, and this trend is expected to continue as he attempts to inherit Raila’s voter base.
Raila’s supporters have made their stance clear. Once Raila returns, they will not entertain any explanations regarding the election loss. Their decision is firm: if Raila does not succeed, the blame will fall solely on Ruto.
This predicament places Ruto in a highly precarious position. Finding a way out appears nearly impossible, as his efforts to navigate the political landscape have been met with consistent challenges. Additionally, a notable shift has emerged, with discussions around the Deputy President’s impeachment resurfacing.
Initially deemed a mistake, it is now evident that his removal could have made Central Kenya’s parliamentary votes more contested. With Azimio holding significant numbers, just a slight boost from disgruntled Central Kenya voters could make an impeachment attempt feasible.
Ruto’s Impeachment
If a coalition successfully aligns against Ruto, impeachment could become a real possibility. Although some argue that it is currently unfeasible due to government officials benefiting from their positions, the removal of cabinet secretaries is not an easy task.
Ruto could shuffle his cabinet, but it would require substantial effort. Meanwhile, Azimio must focus on its future in the next elections rather than being preoccupied with who holds cabinet positions.
Those currently in office should be willing to relinquish their seats if it guarantees a better political advantage. Observing the recent parliamentary proceedings, it is clear that many politicians see more benefits in ousting the president now rather than waiting for the next election.
The president’s main concern now is maintaining control. If Raila returns, significant efforts will be required to contain him. One potential move could be unconstitutional constitutional amendments aimed at creating new positions, such as a Prime Minister role. Public opinion will be a crucial factor in shaping post-election dynamics.
President Ruto has previously shown disregard for the rule of law and constitutional limitations, evident in his creation of various offices despite strong court opposition. These tendencies indicate that Kenyans should prepare for the repercussions following the AU elections.
With over 100 MPs in Azimio’s camp, the situation calls for serious consideration of Raila’s influence upon his return. The reception he receives at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport will be telling. Whether he wins or loses, Kenyans should brace themselves for an intense political period.
Ruto’s Plan: The Northeastern Strategy
Speculation has arisen regarding Ruto’s alternative plans if he fails to inherit Raila’s voter base. His recent actions, such as lifting vetting requirements in Northeastern Kenya, suggest an attempt to secure new political allies.
The vote margin between him and Raila in the last election was narrow, and he is now looking to bridge that gap. However, this strategy may not be as effective as he hopes.
His visit to the region, intended to strengthen ties, backfired when his statements were perceived as insulting to the community. Unlike other regions, these communities do not forget grievances easily, especially when insults target their fundamental struggles.
Beyond traditional political calculations, a critical factor in the upcoming elections is the youth demographic. The Gen Z population will not passively observe the election unfold.
Their technological expertise allows them to counter digital election manipulation, while their mobilization skills have been demonstrated in mass gatherings and online activism.
These young voters are deeply dissatisfied with the current leadership, viewing the president as unpatriotic and accountable to external influences rather than the Kenyan people. Additionally, they reject any form of coercion and are fiercely resistant to political pressure.
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Their frustration is mirrored by millennials, who once had aspirations of stable careers and entrepreneurship but now find their dreams unattainable due to economic instability. These two generations will be formidable forces in the next election.
As the political climate becomes increasingly unpredictable, it is evident that the upcoming election will be one of the most challenging in Kenya’s history. There remains the possibility of an unforeseen transition government, depending on how events unfold.
Only time will tell what direction the nation will take. As the situation develops, political analysts and the public alike will closely watch every move. The coming days will be crucial in determining Kenya’s political trajectory.
Kenya’s Political Storm: What Happens If Raila Odinga Loses? Can Ruto Survive?
