2027 Politics: Why Raila Will Run and Win Despite His Age.
Raila Amolo Odinga has returned to the country following his unsuccessful bid for the African Union (AU) chairmanship. This development raises speculation about his potential candidacy in the 2027 presidential elections.
Some argue that he is being pressured to run, but the question remains: does anyone truly have the power to push him into the race?
One of the major arguments against Raila’s candidacy is his age. Critics claim he is too advanced in years to lead the country. However, constitutional provisions place no age limit on a presidential candidate, as long as they are above 18.
Globally, many leaders older than Raila have held office successfully. Notably, Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad returned to power at 93, proving that age is just a number. Furthermore, leaders like former U.S. President Donald Trump, despite their age, continue to exert significant influence.
Raila’s energy levels also challenge the notion that he is unfit to run. Those close to him attest that he is more energetic than many younger politicians.
Even at his age, he maintains an impressive work ethic, attending events and engaging in extensive political discussions with remarkable mental agility. The idea that he is too old to run is, therefore, an unfounded argument.
While age might have played a role in Raila’s AU loss, it was not due to a lack of capability but rather a failure in strategic messaging.
Had his campaign team focused on presenting him as a forward-looking leader rather than emphasizing past achievements, the outcome might have been different.
Additionally, diplomatic efforts to secure presidential backing at a crucial stage could have altered the results. Age may have been a factor in perception, but not in reality.
Raila’s Political Influence Amid Changing Dynamics
Beyond the age debate, another concern is whether Raila’s political influence has diminished. Some feel he has alienated sections of his traditional support base, leading to accusations of betrayal.
His past alliances have drawn criticism, particularly from those who believe he compromised revolutionary ideals. However, history has shown that Raila is a master of political reinvention.
Despite claims of a waning influence, Raila retains the ability to reshape political narratives. His ability to galvanize support remains unparalleled.
Even among those who currently criticize him, he can rebuild trust and reassert dominance in key regions. Political betrayals and shifting allegiances are common, but Raila has consistently demonstrated the capacity to regain ground.
A key challenge for Raila is assembling a winning electoral coalition. Skeptics argue that with certain regional leaders drifting away, his traditional strongholds may weaken. However, this perspective is shortsighted.
If the political landscape positions Raila as the primary alternative to unseat President William Ruto, he will attract a broad coalition.
In this scenario, Raila would emerge as the most viable candidate to challenge Ruto. Even those currently skeptical of his candidacy would recognize his potential to secure victory. Political alliances are dynamic, and the idea that some leaders have permanently defected is an oversimplification.
The Role of the Mountain in Raila’s Prospects
The political stance of Central Kenya, often referred to as “the Mountain,” remains a crucial factor. Currently, the region appears aligned with Ruto, but political sentiments can shift.
If prominent figures from the Mountain endorse Raila as the best option to defeat Ruto, the region could follow suit. Historical precedents suggest that political grievances within the Mountain could lead to realignments in the coming years.
Although past tensions exist between Raila and the Mountain, political loyalty is fluid. Just as past opponents have later been embraced, Raila could position himself as the leader who addresses the region’s concerns.
Political anger often drives unexpected alliances, and the Mountain’s dissatisfaction with the current administration could turn into support for Raila.
Election outcomes are not solely determined by logical calculations. Human nature plays a critical role. When faced with multiple candidates, voters are likely to gravitate toward the strongest contender capable of unseating the incumbent.
Despite his age, Raila’s track record, political acumen, and mass appeal position him favorably against other opposition figures.
The Western and Coastal Vote
In regions like Western Kenya and the Coast, Raila’s grip remains strong. Dislodging him from these bases would require an extraordinary effort. His influence in these areas is deeply rooted, and past elections have demonstrated his ability to retain their support.
The only scenario where his influence might wane is if he endorsed another candidate. However, if he runs himself, he is likely to secure a majority of votes from these regions.
One of Raila’s greatest strengths lies in his ability to shape election narratives. He does not simply declare his candidacy—he defines the election’s meaning.
This framing influences how voters perceive the stakes, often pushing secondary concerns like age into the background. His historical ability to control the narrative gives him an edge over other candidates.
Since 2007, Raila has been the strongest candidate in every election he has contested. His understanding of politics surpasses that of many rivals. Although President Ruto brings unmatched energy and determination, Raila remains an undisputed political heavyweight.
His main weakness has been the structuring of his campaigns, often lacking the right personnel to execute a winning strategy. However, if he rectifies these organizational flaws, he remains a formidable force.
Read Also: Raila Odinga’s Secret Dubai Meeting Exposed – What’s His Next Move?
The Battle Between Old and New Politics
A common argument is that younger generations want to eliminate leaders linked to the KANU era. However, history shows that power is never willingly handed over—it must be taken. Young politicians often enter the system only to adopt the same tactics as their predecessors.
While generational change is inevitable, Raila has the potential to position himself as a transitional figure. He could facilitate the shift while ensuring stability, making himself an indispensable player in shaping the future.
If elections were held today, Raila would likely run. His decision would depend on the nature of his agreement with Ruto, if any.
If the agreement was superficial, Raila could easily break away and present himself as an alternative. However, if deeper commitments were made, his role in the next election could be different.
Ultimately, winning is a separate challenge from running. If he chooses to contest, Raila’s ability to win will depend on how effectively he mobilizes support and counters emerging political forces. His track record suggests he has what it takes to mount a serious challenge in 2027.
2027 Politics: Why Raila Will Run and Win Despite His Age.
